Rooftop solar PV and the peak load problem in the NEM's Queensland region

Over the period 2016–2021 Australia's National Electricity Market (NEM) experienced an investment supercycle comprising 24,000 MW of renewables. One more intriguing aspects was a partial shift decision-making from utility boardrooms to households – rooftop solar PV comprised 8000 total. In NEM regions such as Queensland, take-up rates have now reached 41.8% households, currently highest rate in world. There is distinct mismatch between residential peak demand and output, which tends suggest any load problem will be exacerbated. When contribution abstracted power system level these results reverse. The equilibrium framework Boiteux (1949), Turvey (1964) Berrie (1967) has historically been used define optimal plant mix satisfy growth. this article, their conventional ‘dis-investment’ presence rising utility-scale renewables energy-only market setting. Queensland's 4400 displaces 1000 generation equilibrium, 500 peaking somewhat counterintuitively, baseload coal falling ‘minimum demand’ being driving factor. NEM's its $15,000/MWh price cap proves tractable through 50% renewable share, but relies critically on frictionless divestment bounded negative offers.